Aviation companies are facing challenges related to potential disruptions from space debris, as authorities may temporarily close airspace in affected regions to prevent accidents. A study published by Boley and colleagues in early 2023 estimates that high-traffic aerospace areas, such as northern Europe and the northeastern United States, have about a 26% annual chance of experiencing at least one disruption due to the reentry of significant space debris. If all planned satellite constellations are deployed, airspace closures caused by space debris may become almost as frequent as those due to adverse weather conditions.
Current limitations in predicting reentry trajectories lead to unnecessary airspace closures. For instance, predictions regarding the reentry of a 21-metric-ton Chinese Long March mega-rocket in 2022 indicated that debris could scatter over parts of Spain and France. Contrary to expectations, the rocket landed in the Pacific Ocean, but the closure of southern European airspace for about 30 minutes resulted in delays and diversions for hundreds of flights.
In response to these concerns, international regulators are encouraging satellite operators and launch providers to safely deorbit large satellites and rocket bodies when feasible. This involves using residual fuel to guide these objects to isolated areas of the ocean. The European Space Agency reports that approximately half of the rocket bodies reentering the atmosphere do so in a controlled manner. However, around 2,300 obsolete and uncontrollable rocket bodies remain in orbit, gradually moving toward Earth without the means for a safe descent.
According to Boley, even with improved practices, the presence of these rocket bodies means that they will eventually reenter the atmosphere. While the likelihood of space debris colliding with an aircraft is low, the probability of debris falling over busy airspace is significant.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/11/17/1127980/what-is-the-chance-your-plane-will-be-hit-by-space-debris/