The Trades Union Congress (TUC) has raised concerns regarding the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), suggesting that it might hinder economic growth and should undergo modernization. This comes ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s upcoming autumn budget scheduled for November 26. The TUC argues that the OBR could act as a “straitjacket” on living standards due to its adherence to austerity economics.
TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak emphasized the need for an urgent evaluation of the OBR’s role in the budget-setting process, particularly after the forthcoming tax and spending announcement. He criticized the OBR’s forecasts for contributing to a significant projected hole in public finances, potentially amounting to £20 billion, which raises questions about Reeves’s fiscal framework.
According to reports, if the OBR had issued its revised productivity forecasts earlier, it might have influenced the affordability of previous Conservative tax cuts. The new data reflect a downward adjustment in productivity growth assumptions, which have not achieved pre-2008 crisis rates for nearly two decades. The TUC is calling for a review to understand the shortcomings of the OBR’s prior forecasts and its influence on the chancellor’s budgetary decisions.
Nowak expressed bewilderment at the timing of the OBR’s productivity assessment, questioning why it was not shared sooner for better planning clarity. The TUC is pushing for a single forecast model to stabilize economic predictions, a move that aligns with recommendations from the International Monetary Fund.
In response, the OBR declined to comment, while a Treasury spokesperson reaffirmed respect for the OBR’s independence and indicated that further information would be available after the upcoming forecast.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/16/uk-budget-watchdog-in-danger-of-strangling-economic-growth-says-tuc-boss