In recent months, control of Kyaukme, a town along the trade route from China to Myanmar, has shifted between the military junta and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). After the TNLA captured Kyaukme last year, it marked a significant achievement for the opposition against the military regime, which has faced persistent challenges since seizing power in 2021. However, just three weeks ago, government forces regained control, highlighting a notable shift in the military balance favoring the junta.
The military’s retaking of Kyaukme caused extensive damage to the town, largely due to airstrikes and artillery targeting TNLA positions. Many residents fled during the conflict, though some have begun to return as the situation stabilizes. Tar Parn La, a spokesman for the TNLA, noted the intensified military campaign, citing the junta’s increased manpower and modern weaponry.
Support from China has significantly influenced the military’s resurgence, as Beijing endorses a December election plan that excludes the opposition National League for Democracy. This military effort to reclaim territory aims to facilitate elections in regions under its control, using advanced technologies and strategies learned from previous confrontations.
Conversely, the fragmented opposition, consisting of various “people’s defense forces” and ethnic insurgent groups, continues to struggle. Many lack unified leadership and resources, despite initial successes against the junta in late 2023. Analysts suggest initial overestimations of both the junta’s weaknesses and the strength of the opposition have complicated the situation.
With heavy fighting persisting in several regions, including recent advancements in Kayah and Karen states, the military’s focus on strategic locations appears effective, yet large parts of Myanmar remain under resistance control. Despite this, the military’s recent consolidation of power, alongside China’s backing, points to a complicated future for the conflict, with a bleak humanitarian landscape and fractured political prospects.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c051m0jn392o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss