On election night in New York City, a group of Kalshi employees gathered in a discreet office in the Meatpacking District. The environment was calm but focused, with staff working around desks while monitoring live betting markets displayed on a large screen.
Kalshi co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, interacted with a CBS News team, which was covering the election results. Notably, Kalshi had predicted the outcome of the Virginia governor’s race nearly an hour before CBS made its call.
The atmosphere was quieter than anticipated, attributed by Mansour to reduced volatility in the New York mayoral race, where a wide margin was anticipated. Even so, Kalshi reported approximately $100 million in trades related to this election.
Mansour highlighted that Kalshi has seen significant growth, reporting a transaction volume of about $1 billion per week, a substantial increase from $300 million in total for the previous year. This growth is attributed to three main factors: a federal operating license, expansion into sports betting, and a partnership with Robinhood for prediction markets.
Although relatively new, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have gained attention in tech circles. Mansour expressed ambitions for Kalshi to be recognized alongside them. He suggested that prediction markets could represent a new era of market dynamics, allowing public opinions to be monetized.
Kalshi’s ability to make timely predictions was emphasized, including calling the New Jersey governor’s race significantly earlier than other news outlets. However, the reliability of these markets is still being scrutinized, given the potential implications if incorrect predictions occur. Trends observed during trades indicated demographic voting patterns that Kalshi attempted to analyze in real-time.
With the office’s activities wrapping up as polls closed, Kalshi promptly predicted the outcome of the New York mayoral race just after the polls closed, further asserting its role in election forecasting.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/column/815208/election-night-at-kalshi-hq