Oil prices are currently experiencing their most significant weekly decline in three and a half months, with Brent crude dropping from $70.13 to $64.59 per barrel this week, marking an 8% decrease. This decline comes amid predictions that the OPEC+ group will continue to increase oil output.
Analysts from Unicredit anticipate that OPEC+ will approve an increase of 137,000 barrels per day at their upcoming meeting on Sunday, despite concerns regarding an oversupply in the oil market. Geopolitical events have had limited impact on pricing, suggesting that structural factors are largely guiding the market.
Falling oil prices could potentially ease inflationary pressures, benefiting consumers and businesses alike. JPMorgan analysts have indicated that September may signify a turning point, predicting a substantial surplus in the oil market by the end of 2025.
In related news, petrol and diesel prices in the UK have risen by approximately a penny per litre during September, despite stable crude oil prices. The RAC reports that the average price of unleaded petrol increased from 134.64p to 135.41p, while diesel rose from 142.19p to 143.14p. The RAC attributes this trend to elevated retailer margins, which have caused concern among regulators.
Furthermore, a government shutdown in the U.S. has led to the cancellation of the upcoming jobs report, which could hinder the Federal Reserve’s decision-making regarding interest rates. Stephen Innes from SPI Asset Management commented that the absence of key economic data complicates the Fed’s ability to navigate the current economic landscape.
As the week progresses, stakeholders are closely monitoring both oil output adjustments and fluctuating fuel prices amid ongoing market dynamics.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/oct/03/oil-price-weekly-fall-opec-fuel-services-sector-no-non-farm-business-live-news