BP has revised its projections for global oil and gas demand, indicating challenges in meeting the net zero emissions target by 2050. The company’s latest outlook report estimates that oil consumption could reach 83 million barrels per day by 2050, an increase of 8% from a previous estimate of 77 million barrels. Additionally, BP anticipates that natural gas demand may rise to 4,806 cubic meters annually in 2050, up from 4,729 cubic meters in its earlier forecasts.
To align with global net zero ambitions by 2050, BP notes that a significant decline in oil demand would need to occur more rapidly, suggesting levels around 85 million barrels per day by 2035 and approximately 35 million barrels by 2050. Presently, global oil consumption stands at about 100 million barrels daily.
Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, pointed out that geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, have amplified focus on national energy security. These dynamics could lead to a shift towards greater use of domestically produced energy rather than relying on imported fossil fuels.
The report emphasizes that despite progress in renewable energy, oil is expected to remain the dominant source of global energy supply, accounting for about 30% by 2035, a slight decline from its current share. BP predicts that renewables will increase from 10% of primary energy supply in 2023 to 15% by 2035 but are not expected to exceed oil consumption until the end of the 2040s.
Furthermore, BP’s analysis indicates that remaining within a 2°C carbon budget will become more challenging if the current energy trajectory persists, with cumulative carbon emissions projected to surpass this limit by the early 2040s. This could elevate the economic and social costs associated with mitigating climate change impacts.
In the backdrop of these projections, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is considering ways to boost North Sea drilling while adhering to current manifesto commitments against new licenses in untapped areas.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/25/bp-oil-and-gas-clean-energy-ukraine-middle-east-tariffs