The latest forecast from the Rhodium Group indicates that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions reductions are expected to decelerate over the next decade, which could hinder global climate change efforts. Previously, the firm had projected a decrease of up to 56% in emissions by 2035 based on existing climate policies. However, this outlook has shifted, anticipating only a 26–35% reduction compared to 2005 levels due to changes in U.S. energy and climate policy since the Trump administration took office.
The revised forecast suggests that the U.S. will not meet the level of action required to mitigate global temperature rise, leading to concerns over increased extreme weather and climate-related disasters. The Trump administration has reportedly created challenges for wind and solar energy, along with efforts to roll back federal environmental protections.
In contrast, former President Joe Biden’s administration has aimed for a minimum 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade, in alignment with the global Paris Agreement. The Inflation Reduction Act, enacted in 2022, includes tax incentives geared towards clean energy and electric vehicles, estimated to reduce emissions by approximately 40% by 2030. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has also been working on policies aimed at regulating pollution from various sectors.
On the other hand, the current EPA has proposed rescinding a significant 2009 finding that allows for regulation of greenhouse gases, citing a need for consumer choice. This proposal could lead to the repeal of emissions regulations for vehicles and engines, which is anticipated to face legal challenges.
Rhodium Group’s emissions forecast encompasses a variety of potential outcomes, influenced by the realization of proposed policies and economic variables such as energy prices and clean technology costs. Even without subsidies, renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, remain competitive. As electricity demand increases due to technological advancements, the contribution of renewables to cutting emissions is likely to endure, albeit potentially at a slower pace under current administration policies.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/news/776032/us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-trump-forecast-rhodium-group