As Keir Starmer returns from his summer break in Europe and Labour MPs head back to Westminster, the government faces a challenging new parliamentary session after a tumultuous few months. Polls indicate that Labour’s popularity has dropped to 20%, a level not seen in over five years, and it now trails behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK by eight points.
Amid ongoing internal conflicts and criticism regarding its handling of key issues such as the economy and migration, Starmer’s government is under pressure to regain ground. The upcoming budget poses significant challenges, with a potential spending gap exceeding £40 billion predicted due to a slowdown in economic growth and higher-than-expected inflation. Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has ruled out major tax increases — such as on income tax, national insurance, or VAT — while exploring alternative options such as inheritance and capital gains tax reforms. However, explaining these potential tax increases to the public remains a complex task.
As Labour’s party discipline comes under scrutiny, recent internal disagreements have highlighted the tensions within the party. Starmer faced pushback from MPs over welfare cuts, which ultimately led to a government reversal on a significant policy. The summer break allowed time for reflection, with Starmer restructuring his team and a planned reshuffle of junior ministers to address internal concerns and reward rising talents.
The upcoming state visit by Donald Trump presents another challenge, as Starmer aims to maintain diplomatic relations despite differing political views. This visit comes amid potential concerns about Trump’s influence on sensitive issues, including economic agreements and international relations related to the Gaza crisis.
Additionally, migration remains a pressing issue, with rising small boat crossings creating public unease. The government’s handling of this matter, and its incremental approach toward asylum processing, has not adequately addressed public concerns and contributed to growing criticism. With local elections approaching, Labour must demonstrate its capability to manage these challenges effectively.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/aug/31/the-budget-immigration-trump-visit-the-tests-lying-in-wait-for-keir-starmer