An executive from a Fortune 500 company has indicated that a thorough evaluation of analytics within the organization revealed that employees contribute minimal value overall. The potential of replacing outdated software and inefficient human labor with artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to substantial improvements, yet such a transformation would necessitate extensive changes to current processes and may take several years to implement.
There are some positive signs in the current economic landscape. After over a decade of productivity growth stagnating at 1% to 1.5%, the U.S. saw a rebound to more than 2% last year, with projections suggesting a similar trend in the initial nine months of the current year. However, due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, official data is unavailable to verify these estimates.
Determining the sustainability of this productivity increase or its connection to AI remains uncertain. Technological advancements typically do not yield benefits in isolation; they often build upon previous investments, such as in cloud and mobile computing. The current AI surge may also foreshadow significant breakthroughs in areas like robotics, and while tools like ChatGPT have captured public interest, they may not represent the ultimate potential of AI technology.
Discussion around AI’s impact on economic productivity continues to be prominent. It is suggested that AI could enhance productivity significantly, but accurately assessing its current and future effects is challenging. Erik Brynjolfsson posits that, akin to other general-purpose technologies, AI may experience a “J curve” effect—initially showing slow or negative productivity impacts as businesses invest, followed by eventual gains. However, a contrasting case can be made, as productivity growth from IT experienced a rise in the mid-1990s but has been lackluster since the mid-2000s, despite numerous advancements in digital technologies.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/12/01/1127872/the-state-of-ai-welcome-to-the-economic-singularity/