The recently leaked draft US-Russia peace plan suggests a significant restructuring of Ukrainian territory and military capacity. Under the proposal, parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, currently under Ukrainian control, would be transferred to Russian authority. Additionally, Ukraine would be required to reduce its military forces to 600,000 personnel, down from an estimated 880,000.
The draft outlines 28 key points, some of which might be considered acceptable to Ukraine, while others appear vague. It includes a statement confirming Ukraine’s sovereignty, a comprehensive non-aggression agreement involving Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, and a proposed set of security guarantees for Kyiv. However, details regarding the security guarantees and their reliability remain unclear.
Notably, the plan includes contentious provisions that involve Ukraine ceding unoccupied territory and implementing a military reduction. Specifically, it mandates that Ukrainian forces withdraw from certain parts of Donetsk Oblast, which would then be categorized as a neutral demilitarized zone recognized as Russian territory. Many Ukrainians may find the potential loss of significant urban areas unacceptable.
The draft proposes that Ukraine enshrine in its constitution a commitment to not join NATO, while still being eligible for EU membership with promised access to European markets. The issues of sovereignty and Ukraine’s right to choose its alliances remain critical as these commitments contradict existing constitutional provisions.
Additionally, the plan indicates intentions of re-integrating Russia into the global economy, and it includes proposals regarding the future financial management of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, several aspects have drawn skepticism regarding their feasibility and implications.
A significant concern is whether these proposals may serve more Moscow’s interests rather than balance both parties’ needs, particularly regarding the lifting of sanctions and commitments to eliminate discriminatory measures. The response from various stakeholders, including Ukrainian officials and international observers, underscores the complexity of achieving a meaningful and lasting peace.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cde6yld78d6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss