The threat posed by space debris to flights is increasing, though it remains relatively low. According to the European Space Agency, approximately three pieces of old space equipment, including used rockets and non-functional satellites, re-enter Earth’s atmosphere daily. Predictions suggest that by the mid-2030s, the number of such incidents may rise significantly due to the increasing number of megaconstellations in orbit.
To date, incidents involving space debris have not resulted in injuries to individuals, either in the air or on the ground. However, there have been several reported close calls in recent years that raise concerns. Some assessments indicate that the probability of a single death or injury caused by space debris on the ground might reach around 10% annually by 2035. This projection implies that there could be a greater than even chance of someone being struck by space junk approximately every decade.
Despite the current low risk, the potential for harm serves as a reminder of the growing challenges posed by space debris as satellite technology evolves and the number of objects in orbit increases. Further research and monitoring of space debris will be critical as the landscape of space activity continues to change.
This overview is part of a broader series designed to elucidate complex technological issues for a general audience.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/11/17/1127988/the-download-the-risk-of-falling-space-debris-and-how-to-debunk-a-conspiracy-theory/