New data indicates that global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption are projected to reach record levels in 2025, estimated at 38.1 billion tonnes. This marks a 1.1% increase from the prior year, highlighting a slow progress in global efforts to meet climate targets set at international levels, as countries convene for the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
Despite rising emissions, over the last decade, the rate of increase has significantly diminished, suggesting some optimism. The clean energy think tank Ember reports that fossil fuel use in electricity generation is expected to level off, driven mainly by the rapid expansion of solar energy. This shift implies that a peak in global emissions might be approaching, although precise timing remains uncertain.
Emissions related to changes in land use, particularly deforestation, are predicted to decline slightly this year, primarily due to the end of the El Niño weather pattern, which has historically contributed to forest losses. Overall, total human-caused emissions are anticipated to decline marginally from 42.4 billion tonnes in 2024 to 42.2 billion tonnes in 2025.
In terms of growth, emissions have increased at a slower rate of 0.3% annually over the past ten years compared to 1.9% in the previous decade. Notably, 35 countries have reduced fossil fuel emissions while achieving economic growth, nearly doubling the number from the last decade.
While some experts suggest that emissions in the power sector could stabilize and eventually decline, concerns persist about the potential ramifications if significant action is not taken at events like COP30. Current research signals that warming might reach 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by century’s end based on existing policies, underscoring the urgency for effective climate measures.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c620q30w0q0o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss