Grocery inflation in Britain decreased to 4.7% for the four weeks ending November 2, dropping from 5.2% in the prior four-week period. This shift comes as retailers enhance promotions in anticipation of the Christmas season, providing some relief to consumers facing potential tax increases linked to this month’s budget. According to Worldpanel by Numerator, overall UK inflation remained steady at 3.8% during September, with food inflation showing signs of slowing.
Worldpanel’s data indicated that prices for chocolate confectionery, fresh meat, and coffee experienced the fastest increases, while items such as kitchen roll, toilet paper, sugar confectionery, and dog food saw the most significant price decreases. Grocery sales for the period rose by 3.2% compared to the previous year, with spending on promotional deals growing by 9.4%, contrasting with a modest 1.8% increase for items sold at full price. This suggests that households may be purchasing fewer items or opting for cheaper alternatives, including store brands and discount retailers.
Lidl recorded the highest growth among physical grocery stores, with a 10.8% rise in sales over the 12-week period, benefiting from new store openings and a shift towards value. Meanwhile, Tesco and Sainsbury’s maintained market share, whereas Asda faced a decline of 3.9% in sales and saw its market share decrease to 11.6%. Morrisons is close to being overtaken by Lidl as the fifth largest supermarket in the UK, following a 2.3% increase in sales for Morrisons.
Conversely, upmarket retailers like Marks & Spencer and Ocado benefited from an increase in disposable income among higher earners, achieving sales growth of 8.8% and 15.9%, respectively. Despite this, shares for Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Marks & Spencer experienced declines recently, with analysts suggesting that the current slowdown in sales growth might become a new standard. Concern exists that worsening economic conditions could push shoppers further towards discount retailers. As the holiday season approaches, the emphasis on promotions and value is expected to intensify.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/11/uk-grocery-price-inflation-retailers-pre-christmas-promotions-prices