Donald Trump’s aim to mediate peace in Ukraine centers on a key question: Can he persuade the global community to stop purchasing Russian fossil fuels? Recently, Trump instituted sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, intending to curtail Moscow’s funding for its military operations.
Experts, including Tom Keatinge from the Centre for Finance and Security, have noted the swift action of the US sanctions, suggesting they may have greater immediate impact than measures taken by the EU in recent months. These sanctions pose a risk for companies that continue to import Russian oil, as they could lose access to the dollar-based financial system. This risk is particularly pertinent for India and China, which have become the largest importers of Russian oil and gas since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine over three years ago.
The impact of the sanctions has already been felt, with a reported 6% increase in global oil prices and an immediate halt in Russian oil deliveries to major Indian refineries. Analysts indicate that a notable reduction in fossil fuel imports from Asia could significantly undermine the Kremlin’s export revenues. In the first nine months of this year, approximately 86% of Russia’s crude oil exports went to China and India, and losing access to these markets could result in substantial financial losses for Russia.
While Russian fossil fuel export revenues have decreased significantly, purchases from Asian and Eastern European buyers, as well as covert operations via “shadow tankers,” continue to provide financial support for the Kremlin. Trump’s recent actions followed a lukewarm response to his earlier demands for India and China to limit their Russian energy imports, which have been met with harsh criticism from Beijing.
Despite these developments, uncertainty remains regarding the broader implications of the sanctions and their potential to shift the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine. The effectiveness of enforcement and the reactions of nations still dependent on Russian energy will shape future outcomes in this ongoing situation.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/26/trump-sanctions-impact-russian-oil-gas