Recent analysis has revealed that the north Pacific region experienced its warmest summer on record, with sea surface temperatures from July to September exceeding previous highs by over 0.25°C. This heatwave, described as a “warm blob,” spans an area approximately ten times larger than the Mediterranean Sea.
The persistence of elevated temperatures in the north Pacific has left researchers puzzled, particularly since climate change generally increases the likelihood of marine heatwaves. Some scientists express concern that this unexpected warmth may have implications beyond the Pacific, potentially leading to colder winter conditions in the UK. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist, noted that the significant temperature rise across such a vast area is unusual and suggests that other factors may be contributing beyond natural variability.
Data utilized for this analysis was sourced from the European Copernicus climate service, which indicated that the north Pacific has steadily warmed over the past several decades. Current temperatures surpass even the predictions from climate models based on known carbon emissions.
Natural weather variability, including unusually weak winds this summer, is believed to play a role by limiting ocean cooling, yet experts argue other contributors must also be considered. One hypothesis points to changes in shipping fuel regulations since 2020 that have removed sulphur emissions, which historically reflected sunlight and could have mitigated warming effects.
As for potential impacts, the heatwave has already influenced weather patterns, increasing storm activity in the U.S. and extreme heat in Japan and South Korea. Atmospheric interactions resulting from these conditions might also affect weather in Europe, creating the possibility of colder weather in the UK this winter. However, predicting outcomes remains complex due to various factors involved.
Additionally, the eastern tropical Pacific is currently displaying cooler surface waters, a characteristic of the La Niña phenomenon, which could further influence weather patterns in the coming months. As La Niña conditions are anticipated to persist, how these factors will interact remains a topic of ongoing research.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3xynwwx4yo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss